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Comments Effecting Canadian Events – Ken McGregor

Alberta Oil- Cloudy Days Ahead

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Alberta is still hoping for the good old days and hitching its wagon on pumping up oil production in the hope it can get its oil to tide waters to sell to International market. Even if by some chance Alberta does get its tidewater Pipeline, will the international market be there to sell too?

Within the next 20-25 years oil being used for gasoline will be a thing of the past with the emerging electric car. Presently gasoline represents about 47% of all oil production. With the electric car moving into the market place this share of the oil market will inevitability shrink. For those that don’t believe that electric cars can compete with the gasoline automobiles, better think again. The folks that didn’t believe the horse and buggy could be replaced by the gasoline driven car were sadly mistaken and devistated when their industry disappeared. Ironically the buggy loyalists were using many of the same reasons the horse and buggy couldn’t be replaced as todays naysayers are using against the electric car.

In 2018, Americans used about 143 billion gallons of motor gasolineβ€”or about 391 million gallons per day. Ninty Two Percent (92%) of of all gasoline consumed in the US was from Light-duty vehicles (cars, sport utility vehicles, and small trucks) which are now being converted to electric. Forty seven percent (47%) of all oil production is going to be replaced by electric. Today just drive down the street and see how many cars are 20 years or older. Not many. In 20 years you will drive down the street and see just a few gasoline driven vehicles. The major car companies are all jumping on the bandwagon. Even diesel 18 wheelers are being tested using electric engines. The transition to electric will take a big bite out of oil producers world wide, not just Alberta.

With electric cars getting GOOD milage, between 300-480 kilometres on a full charge and QUICK charging within 30 minutes the transition is underway. In 2020 there is going to be at least 11 new models coming to market. Fords company’s CEO Mark Fields said that he wants 40% of Ford’s nameplates to have an electrified version by 2020. There is no turning back.

We are now at the stage the Ford model T was when it was first introduced. It was too expensive for the average person to buy. 15 years later it was everywhere thanks to the invention of the assembly line. The horse and buggy disappeared within 20 years along with all the industries that supported it.

Today is not the first time the world has transitioned into a new more efficient energy. Today’s s change has very little to with climate change (global warming) and everything to do with efficiency and profit. The public and business can charge their own vehicles plus no expensive engine work. All the cons of electric car ownership are disappearing.

With electric transportation moving its way up the S curve , the seventy percent (70%) of a barrel of oil going to produce gasoline and diesel will be cut back drastically. This shift is going to have a very negative future impact on Alberta and Albertans especially if your under 40 years old. We will still be producing oil but a lot less. Every other oil producing country has the same problem. Alberta will have some very tough competition just to keep some of the US market that we have enjoyed over the years. Trying to be the new kid on the block in an international marketplace desperate to sell their product will be all but impossible.

Alberta has to stop its fixation on pipelines and oil and start thinking how we can jump on board this new energy wave. If we don’t we will take our place in history beside the horse and buggy manufactures. Not a pleasant thought.

Written by Ken McGregor

August 23, 2019 at 6:01 pm

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